Wanpela global raba prodaksen kapasiti i antap yet.
Ripot bilong Natural Rubber Prodaksen Federesen (ANRPC) long pinis bilong mun Epril i bin apdetim ol samting ol i ting bai kamap long raba plenting na prodaksen long 2019. Long sait bilong planim, nupela plenting eria bilong raba bus i bin kamap long mak bilong en long 2012, na olgeta ples bilong planim raba i bin go daun long2016. milien hekta bilong raba long 12. milien hekta bilong raba long yia . ples bilong planim kaikai tu i go daun.
Maski nupela raba plening eria i bin go daun liklik long las tupela yia, total plenting eria bilong ol raba bus i stap antap yet i stap long hai{{0} Folem data bilong ANRPC we ol i ting bai data bilong ANRPC, ples bilong planim ANPPC long ol bikpela memba kantri bilong ANPPC bai stap yet long samting olsem 12 milien hekta long dispela yia{2} Long ol yia i go pinis, ol i bin kirapim wok bilong planim raba long ol yia i go pinis, raba plening i bin stat long go antap long ol liklik lain bilong ol manmeri bilong graun bilong ol manmeri bilong graun. plening eria i go het long gro, na global raba prodaksen kapasiti i stap yet long wanpela mak i antap tru.
Jajmen long ekspektesen blong ANRPC blong katem eria blong ol memba stet, open eria long 2019 i ekspektem blong kasem 928.99 milian hekta, wan inkris blong 2{5}}48%. Maski i gat liklik prais bilong raba, ples bilong opim i go antap yet long 2019 i bin kisim sapot i go antap long kamapim raba.
Long narapela han, impak bilong El Niño fenomenon long bihain rubber prodaksin i likim long ol man i mas lukautim. Long ol yia we ples bilong open cutting i kontim long gro, long 2016, prodaksin i daunim bikos bilong long tempertura i stap nogut na draut long Southeast Asia. Long 2019, ol kantri long Southeast Asia inap gen i kamapim ol klimate hevi, we bai gat sertin impak long bihain rubber prodaksin.
Folem ol data we i stap naoia, ol mein memba kantri oli mekem wan total blong 1,872,400 tan blong raba long fas tu manis, wan go daon blong 6{{6}63% yia-long-yia{{7} Impak blong El Niño i klia blong seta long namba tu ples blong raba blong raba blong raba blong raba blong raba. long tok nogat long dispela yia.
Tailan, Indonesia na Malesia em ol bikpela raba ekspota. Long las tupela yia, raba prodaksen i bin go antap long yia bihain yia. Tasol, long rot bilong ol wok bilong tripela kantri long 2018, volium bilong ekspot i go daun long {{3} milien ton, wanpela go daun bilong 2{5}}88%.
Total amaon blong ol raba ekspot long ol trifala bigfala kantri we oli prodiused long yia ia long yia ia i no bin go antap bigwan. Long fiuja, folem Tripati Rabber Komiti (ITRC) blong Taelan, Indonesia mo Malesia, "Restrikted Ekspot Tonanej Plan" bae i kamaot long Epril i go long Ogis i go long Ogis. Ol ekspot volium i stap long rabba we i go daon, we i gat wan volium blong ekspot, we ekspot volium i stap long hem, we oli ekspektem se ekspot volium i go daon, we oli ekspektem se ekspot volium i go daon, we oli ekspektem se ekspot volium i go daon, we i gat wan volium blong ekspot, we ekspot volium i stap long hem, we oli ekspektem se ekspot volium rabli rabol i go daon. ol ekspot. Ol i tok olsem olgeta raba ekspot bilong tripela bikpela ANPC kantri bai go het long stap klostu long 10 milien tan long dispela yia{{6}
Long stat bilong 2019, Nesenel Ruba Risets Ogenaisesen (IRSG) i tok olsem askim bilong raba long wol bai go antap long 2.5% i go long samting olsem 30 milien tan long dispela yia, we ol i bin askim long kisim raba long 14{{6}2 milien, wanpela inkris bilong 2.6%. Long lukluk bilong data, mak bilong gro bilong netsurel raba diman i bin go daun taim yumi skelim wantaim las yia.
The current terminal consumption situation partially confirms the expectations of the IRSG at the beginning of the year. Due to the poor sales of the two major consumer markets in China and the United States, the global automotive industry is currently welcoming a wave of "reductions". As a major source of demand for rubber, tires have also encountered bottlenecks in this year's development. As a major producer, China has not only encountered many Ol polisi i gat tupela rives we i tambuim ol ekspot, tasol domestik taia indastri bilong en tu i bin stap nating.
Long sait bilong slodaun long saplai na diman gro, ICSG i ting olsem saplai na diman bai stap yet olsem balens long dispela yia. Tasol ol global inventori i stap yet olsem wanpela hai. Rabber i stap yet long destocking stej long dispela yia, na tingim bikpela prodaksen kapasiti bilong netsurel raba, presa i go antap long raba prais i stap yet olsem bikpela bilong.”.
B domestik weta o ol bikpela samting
Long ol yia i go pinis, Saina i bin wok yet long putim gut yau long wok bilong raba inap helpim em yet, olsem na ples bilong planim kaikai i stap yet long wanpela bikpela mak bilong. Tasol, Yunnan na Hainan, em ol bikpela hap bilong kamapim raba long Saina, ol i bin kisim bagarap long ol narapela narapela mak bilong drai long dispela yia{2}} Ol i ting olsem domestik prodaksen bai go daun aninit long plenting eria bilong nau. .
Long lukluk bilong ol impot, stat long taim volium i kam insait i bin kamap bikpela tru long 2017, namba bilong ol samting i kam insait long kantri i bin go daun long 2017, na namba bilong ol samting i kamap long taim bilong kaikai i bin go daun. Wanpela as em olsem, konsumsen bilong terminal i go daun, na narapela em olsem ol impota i save kisim moa mani bikos ol i abrusim takis na ol narapela as bilong en i bin go long mun Epril, ol i kisim moa i kam insait long mun Janueri long dispela yia. bilong netsurel raba i bin kamap long 650,000 ton, wanpela go daun bilong 70,000 ton skelim wantaim wankain taim long las yia{{9}
domestik na intanesenel saplai bilong sintetik raba i bin go antap liklik long ol laspela yia. Namel long ol, long sait bilong domestik prodaksen, sintetik raba prodaksen grot reit bilong Saina i bin stap long namba wan ples long wol, na kumuletiv autput gro long 2018 i bin go antap gen, i bin kamap long 7.1%.
Long sait bilong ol impot, sintetik raba i bin apim mak bilong em long kisim i kam long nupela level bikos long ol impota i abrusim takis bilong ol impot. Long 2018, wanpela total bilong 4.41 milien tan bilong sintetik raba i bin kisim i kam insait, we ol i bin miksim miks bilong netsurel raba na sintetik raba i bin kamap long 2.95 milien tan. Stat long Janueri i go inap long Epril dispela yia, ol i bin kisim gutpela kondisen long ol samting ol i wokim long sintetik raba, na namba bilong ol sintetik raba i kam insait i bin kamap long 1.47 milien tan, na dispela i go antap inap olsem 8%.
Long Epril 28, Jeneral Edministresen bilong ol Kastom i bin givim aut wanpela toksave long klasifikesen bilong "miks raba", na i nidim wanpela gutpela wok painimaut long miks bilong netsurel raba na sintetik raba. Em i no moa larim long yusim sintetik raba wantaim liklik hap bilong sintetik raba long pes bilong bungim raba i kam long pes bilong bungim raba i kam long pes bilong bungim raba i kam long en bilong bungim raba i kam long en bilong bungim raba i kam long en bilong bungim raba i kam long en bilong bungim raba i kam insait long en bilong bungim raba i kam insait long en bilong bungim raba i kam insait long en bilong bungim raba i kam insait long en bilong bungim raba i kam insait long en bilong bungim raba i kam insait long en bilong bungim raba i kam insait long en bilong bungim raba i kam long en bilong bungim raba i kam long en bilong bungim raba i kam long en bilong bungim raba i kam long en bilong bungim raba i kam long en bilong bungim raba i kam long dispela yia. dipatmen i toktok wantaim ol kampani i wokim ol taia long daunstrim long ol samting i stret long ol samting bilong notis pepa. Bihain long ol i kliagut long askim bilong ol man i wokim ol samting bilong daunim takis, ol i strong yet long tingting bilong bihainim strong dispela toksave. Long sait bilong polisi orientesen, ating i gat sampela strong long prais bilong netsurel raba long bihain taim.
Jajmen long ovarol level blong raba saplae long ol fas fo manis, inkris long saplae blong sintetik raba i bin lidim wan spesel inkris long aktual domestik raba saplae{{0} Be, afta we oli rilisim relevan notis blong haebrid raba, i nid blong lukluk gud long kastom impot data blong najoral raba mo sintetik raba long fiuja.}
C daunstrim konsumsen i no gutpela
Grot reit bilong domestik taia indastri i bin go daun isi isi, na kumuletiv prodaksen gro long las yia i bin 1%. Long 2019, taia indastri i bin kisim bagarap long ol samting olsem ol polisi na ovakapasiti. Long namba wan taim insait long 20 yia, prodaksen i bin go daun{5}} Long Janueri i go long Epril long dispela yia, kumuletiv prodaksen bilong ol taia i bin go daun.
Ol i bin bagarapim tru ol taia i save go aut long rot bilong tupela kaun polisi bilong Yunaitet Stets long pinis bilong las yia na Yunaitet Stets long stat bilong dispela yia. Long dispela yia, ol i bin daunim ekspot volium bilong ol-stiel na semi-stiel taia i go long ol kain kain mak bilong ol taia bilong dispela yia, ol i bin salim ol data bilong ol taia bilong olgeta taia bilong dispela yia, na ol i bin mekim gutpela wok bilong ol taia bilong dispela yia, na ol i bin mekim gutpela wok bilong ol taia bilong dispela yia, na ol i bin mekim gutpela wok bilong ol taia bilong dispela yia, na ol i bin mekim gutpela wok bilong ol taia bilong dispela yia, na ol i bin mekim gutpela wok bilong ol taia bilong dispela yia, na ol i bin mekim gutpela wok bilong ol taia bilong dispela yia, na ol i bin mekim gutpela wok bilong ol taia bilong dispela yia. 158.11 milien, wanpela yia-long-yia inkris bilong 2.49%.
Long nau, ol i no bin tokaut long ol ekspot data long dispela mun. Ol i ting olsem sotpela taim domestik taia ekspot volium bai holim yet wanpela kain gro, tasol bihain ekspot volium i go long ol taia bilong Amerika i no gat gutpela tingting.’s taia prodaksen na ekspot situesen i no gutpela, taia indastri i bin yusim long bikpela salens tru insait long las tenpela yia{3}}}
Long 2018, domestik otomobil indastri i bin go insait long wanpela kol winta . kumuletiv prodaksen na sels volium long yia olgeta i soim ol narapela narapela digri bilong go daun, na ol kain kain otomobil bren i bin kisim bikpela skel tu long Saina{{3} I go daun long otomobil prodaksen na sels long dispela yia i go het yet. prodaksen na sels volium long namba wan 4-pela mun na sels volium long namba wan 4-pela mun na sels volium long namba wan 4-pela mun na sels volium long namba wan 4-pela mun na sels volium long namba wan foapela mun na sels volium long namba wan foapela mun na sels volium long namba wan foapela mun i go daun long namba wan foapela mun na sels volium long namba wan foapela mun i go daun long namba 4 mun. 12{{8}12% wanwan. Ovarol daon long otomotiv indastri i no gud long prodaksen mo salem blong ol domestik taea.
Olsem wanpela samting, global saplai kapasiti i inap, na diman bilong daunstrim i inap, na diman bilong daunstrim em i jeneral{{0} Ovarol saplai na diman bilong olgeta yia i stap yet long mak bilong balensita. Bikos long bikpela inventori na hai prodaksen kapasiti, presa i go antap long prais bilong raba bai antap long bihain taim. Tasol long taim bilong raba i go het, stat long Me, weta na kastom polisi i wok .
Long tok klia, olgeta jasmen bilong mipela i longpela taim sotpela taim, tasol inap i gat risk bilong sotpela taim sap ris. Bihain weta bilong bihain, ol domestik miks raba impot, taia ekspot data na ol domestik daunstrim polisi long ol bikpela Saut-is Esia kantri bai stap olsem ol bikpela samting bilong ol sap senis long ol raba prais, we i mas lukluk gut long ol raba prais, we i nidim long lukluk gut long ol raba prais, we ol i mas lukluk gut long en .}
D opsen strateji analisis
Folem long-tem sot-seling, be maet i gat wan sot taem sap rise long jajmen, folem klosing praes blong maket long Mei 31, ol relevan strateji oli disaenem olsem:
Conservative strategy: Based on the short-term future market, there is a certain probability of rising. You can consider holding the currency for a while, waiting for the weather changes in Southeast Asia and China's mixed rubber import data. If the weather turns better and the domestic rubber import data declines less, then you can consider selling the call option above the target RU1909 contract and earn time value on the rallies.
Agresif strateji: Yu ken yusim opsen ol i putim long wokim wanpela proporsenel spred strateji. Bihain long liklik bearish, yu ken kisim liklik mani yet bihain long mak prais i go antap, na abrusim sotpela taim sap ris risk.
Strateji i gat wok bilong baim wanpela RU1909 husat i ken kisim opsen wantaim straik prais bilong 11,750 yuan/ton na salim wanpela RU1909 i putim opsen wantaim tripela han straik prais bilong 10,750 yuan/ton{Not{7} Plen i stap longpela taim (1-pela mun- 2 mun){10}> mun){{110}} bilong las taim (1-pela mun- 2 mun){10}> 31, klosing prais bilong RU1909 em 11,940 yuan / tan, prais bilong RU1909P11750 em 483 yuan / ton, prais bilong RU1909P10750 em 184 yuan / tan, net royalti inkam i bin kamapim long wanwan kombinesen bilong resio spred strateji Em i samting bilong wanwan bung bilong resio spred strateji Em i samting bilong 690750 long wanwan bung bilong resio spred strateji Em i samting bilong 6907 bilong wanwan kombinesen bilong resio spred strateji. yuan. Ol investa i ken stretim straik prais i stret wantaim put opsen bihainim risk preferens bilong ol.
Mein as bilong wokim wanpela put opsen spred strateji em long kisim taim veliu, na riten i antap moa taim prais i stap aninit i pundaun liklik. Maski prais bilong mak i go antap tru, liklik mani bilong stebol mani i ken kisim, na olgeta sans bilong kisim winmani i bikpela tru.
Long rot bilong strateji bilong pasim profit kev aninit long narapela taim na prais, yumi ken lukim olsem taim prais i pundaun liklik, bikpela win i kamap i kamap klia moa, na maski sapos mak bilong prais i go antap tru, em inap kisim yet wanpela fiks inkam bilong 690 yuan taim em i pinis bilong . sapos mak bilong hevi bilong kisim mani i kam long en, sapos mak bilong hevi bilong kisim mani i kam antap, sapos mak bilong kisim mani i go daun, em i ken bosim gut pe bilong en, sapos mak bilong hevi bilong kisim mani i go daun. tem, bai i gat bikpela lus i stap yet{{3} breakeven poin bilong strateji i stap klostu long 10,250 yuan/ton{6} Olsem na taim prais i pundaun aninit long 10,750 yuan, em i mas bihainim dispela samting i bin kamap na ol i ken tingim ol Kwot bilong likidesen.
In terms of margin, when the target price drops sharply, the margin used by this strategy will increase. It is estimated that the maximum capital occupation during each strategy operation period is 45,000 yuan. In terms of income, if the target price rises or remains unchanged, the annualized yield is about 6.13%. If the target price falls slightly to 11,500 yuan/ton, yield bilong anuelais i olsem 28.36%.
Risk woning: Ol opsen bilong salim i gat bikpela mak bilong mak bilong mak, na i gat hevi bilong ron bihainim taim prais bilong mak i pundaun tru long sotpela taim{{0} Taim prais i pundaun aninit long 11,250 yuan/ton, plis putim gut yau long yu yet long yusim mani{3}} Sapos prais i pundaun aninit long RMB 10,750/ton bilong yu yet. situesen.